Weather

[Admin]

If this long-range forecast map is accurate, last week's floods may look like a bagatelle in 10 days' time:



Auckland city is right under the centre of that system, which will be degraded from a Cat 2/3 cyclone at the end of this week. If it powers up over the extra-warm Tasman Sea it might still be at Cat 2 status.

As I keep saying, sooner or later, one of those will hit the city at the wrong time. Luckily, next week's tides are 0.5m off their peak.

[grayman]

The abruptness and the extreme range will both be working against critters.

They don't have the ability to throw a coat on...

I opened the door to take my dog out the other night, and she got halfway out when the cold hit her. So she stopped abruptly and looked at me as if to say, "What's up with this shit".

[Di Wundrin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xkrp2N5o49c

[Admin]

And they say people are smarter than animals...

[Admin]

Ok. The cyclone I showed above is about to be named, and QLD Cyclone Bureau has a very high likelihood of getting to at least C3.

It's got the Auckland bang in its sights, with the eye now predicted to be right over the city, with pressure <972 hPa, which is very nasty. That's s storm surge of over a metre, so thank christ the tides are 0.5m off the peak or we'd be in serous trouble.

The weather in the area is playing right into the cyclone's hands, with a blocking high to the east, while the Australian high is blocking it to the west. At the same time, there's an area of neutral pressure around NZ, so there's only one way it can go.

If this one comes to pass, I expect it to be the worst we've been impacted by a cyclone since Bola, in 1988. We'll be fine where we are, but the rest of Auckland and northwards is going to be no place to venture out from Sunday to Tuesday.

[Di Wundrin]

The link in that previous cyclone post just showed here as "image" . ??

[grayman]

The link in that previous cyclone post just showed here as "image" . ??

Here's a useful link:


https://www.windy.com/-36.852/174.763?-37.466,174.762,8

[Admin]

The link in that previous cyclone post just showed here as "image" . ??

Huh. I have no idea why that is, but Gray's pic is good.

Also, you can see the computer modelling of its forecast track here: https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.ph ... noofdays=5

I love the way it's going to bounce off the Australian anticyclone to come here. Thanks, Australia!

[Di Wundrin]

The link in that previous cyclone post just showed here as "image" . ??

Huh. I have no idea why that is, but Gray's pic is good.

Also, you can see the computer modelling of its forecast track here: https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.ph ... noofdays=5

I love the way it's going to bounce off the Australian anticyclone to come here. Thanks, Australia!

You're welcome! You know Oz is always there for yas.

Is that what's going on? there were rumblings about it a few days ago and people in Qld were getting nervous then it vanished from the News.

We've gotten off light this summer, just rain, no big newsy windy action that I recall.

Cyclones pale a bit on the Newsworthy scale in comparison to that ME earthquake. Christ what a mess! To be crass nature has told Vlad to hold it's beer!

[Admin]

I imagine it stopped being news in Oz about the time they realised the central anticyclone is staying put and the cyclone would bounce straight off it. The natural path for one spawned there would be straight to north Q.

The latest predictions for where it's going are on, with 28 possibilities I can count. All but one of them go straight over North Island.

Civil Defence is shitting itself, because the land is still highly unstable after the flooding last week. We went and looked at some of it on the weekend, and some of the slips are enormous - one was at least 100m wide, right under the noses of people living in multi-million dollar homes on a ridge overlooking the Manukau Harbour.

Here's the forecast tracks: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weathe ... central-nz

You're not wrong about earthquakes, though - all of our worst disasters have been earthquakes, and we don't have a load of crumbly building like they do in Turkey & Syria.

The thought of sending aid to Syria does my head in. Last week we were knocking the buildings down with bombs.