Admin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:05 pm
I see DJT is actually favourite with bookies to win, and that's just insane. He should be losing like Jimmy Carter, but it looks like it will be closer than 2020.
If, as seems likely, we have a rematch, what would have happened since then to get people to switch their voite.
To switch from Trump to Biden:
Post-election shenanigans, culminating in January 6.
To switch from Biden to Trump:
General perception of feebleness.
Forgetting most of the pandemic ineffectiveness, and even some people deciding that lockdowns were very bad things, perpetrated by Democrats, meanwhile forgetting who was in the White House at the time. It was a deciding factor last time, but it's yesterday's news now.
"Woke" issues. (They were a thing in 2016 and 2020, but they'll be bigger this time around, and they will favor Trump.)
In my humble opinion, the first one, the shenanigans, ought to be a disqualifier. Not necessarily legally, as the subject of this thread, but in my opinion no American ought to vote for any Presidential candidate who denies an obviously valid election. The electorate, however, seems unconcerned. Even bringing it up seems like some sort of talking point that most people have a hostile reaction against. We'll get Liz Cheney's vote, but not many more.
The second one will push some into the Democrat camp.
But the negatives for Biden are very strong. I think more people will switch on those. Even abortion, where people were complacent about four years ago, won't drive as many people to switch. Most people who are strong abortion supporters already voted Democrat.
Well, that's my analysis anyway. There's still a lot of time before November, but I think Trump has a tailwind.