Re: Planet America
Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:02 pm
If Trump is the Republican candidate his presence will probably ensure the Democratics maintaining the Senate. Though I doubt he´ll be their candidate, he is already in too much trouble with the latest indictment. That he personally owns national security secrets and can do with them as he wants seems a ludicrous defense.Meadmaker wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:14 amIf I had to place a bet today on who would win the 2024 election, I would pick Trump.
That's not what I want, but it's what I think will happen.
I don't think Joe Biden can beat Trump, although I might be pleasantly surprised.
A lot can happen between now and then. It will be interesting to see if Chris Christie goes full attack dog on him, and if so how it affects Trump. Someone has to, but it has to be someone from the right, and someone who isn't too intellectual about it.
Factors working for Trump:
Joe Biden is old, in poor health, and experiencing obvious cognitive decline.
People really don't understand the "culture war" issues, and how it affects people in the center of the political spectrum. Overall, It favors Republicans. The Democrats need another Sistah Soulja moment, but I'm not sure it will happen.
The GOP rules favor frontrunners, so unless something happens to cause defections before people start voting in New Hampshire, Trump will have unstoppable momentum.
Factors against Trump: The not quite as stupid wing of the GOP (example: Liz Cheney) really does see just how bad Trump is for the country, and some of them might defect to Anyone But Trump, even if that's Joe Biden. Of course, very few will defect, but with the electoral politics the way they are, 1% is a hell of a lot of voters.
While there are no pro-choice GOP politicians left, there are some pro-choice GOP voters. Again, if the votes are divided in half, 1% is a lot.
A weird thing that could go either way is that lots of people, especially Trump voters, didn't like the lockdowns and anti-pandemic measures. A few of his rivals, especially DeSantis, are starting to point out that Trump was in charge when the "bad" things were happening. I think it's a fair cop, personally.
Personally, I think Trump should be seen as an embarrassment and a joke, but in the current climate, I can see him winning, easily.
Not to say he won´t run as a third part candidate if he can. That leaves either DeSantis (very dour guy) or Christie (very entertaining guy) for the Republicans.
Likewise, I don´t think Biden will be the candidate for the Democrats, might be be one of the govenors from the Midwest.