Science etc.

[arthwollipot]

Both are so far in the future that "we" won't even be anything that we would today describe as human.

[stanky]

That's what i was sayin' back when we were chimps.
Now, we're these unrecognizable organisms, and can't climb for shit.

I've never understood the need some humans have for our species to spread to other planets.
We're just not that great; we got serious issues. I'm guessing we'll be one of the shortest surviving species of all time.
Has it even been a million years?

I could cheer-lead for life in general and some plants more than others...humans, not so much.
Don't want any individuals to die, but i'd guess we'll all be shipped off to extinction in a few generations...if not next thursday.
Hopefully, it won't have to degrade into a dystopian biker nightmare. I hate when that happens.

[Admin]

We'll survive. Humans have survived the collapse of every civilisation that has collapsed.

I remain unconvinced.

We're warming the planet to the extent that I think runaway heating can't be avoided. We have feedback loops everywhere - from the permafrost discharging methane to Antarctic ice melt, the things that are happening are going to increase the rate of change of temperature. Combine that with soil degradation being made worse by the increased rainfall and the acidification of the oceans and I think we have about 200 years left.

I'm also not yet convinced covid isn't the actual end game. It's evolving faster than we can cope with, and the current versions seem to be somewhat more severe than previous versions. Given what we know about damage to organs, it might have a permanent affect on our species.

I made a prediction in the Covid Roulette thread at ISF that the death toll would be 60M. I now think that's a massive under0estimate. We missed our chance at stopping it and will now just have to wait and see. The probability is we'll evolve to cope with it, but the ability of the covid viruses to recombine with other diseases means there's a chance it will evolve into something far worse than what we've seen.

[stanky]

To be concerned about novel virus evolution, while avoiding the subject of U.S. (and other's) continued research, including gain of function manipulations, in the name of protection from possible bio-weapons, is fairly myopic. One needn't even accept the Wuhan lab leak theory to be concerned. Simply acknowledging the number of labs involved in secretive virology, and the massive U.S. military budget surrounding bio-weaponry, should be concerning. Small pox still exists, for instance, in labs. The reasoning is dubious.

I think there's bigger worries concerning our survival. Stuff a good immune system won't help with. We can evolve to handle viruses (so far) but the proliferation of toxins; radiation; micro-plastics, heavy metals, are a different story. Do we see any of that threat being diffused? Or any political will to go there at all?

We can't seem to even get the lead out of our drinking water, as in Flint, Michigan. Too expensive? Flint is hardly the worst of that problem.
Hell, Obama, the liberal savior, drank that tainted water on live tv...proving that it was safe.

Covid, i wouldn't put in the top 50 of threats to human survival.

[arthwollipot]

It's not in a virus's best interests to kill its hosts. A virus will naturally evolve to become more contagious, but less deadly. Look at influenza. It kills people, sure, but mostly only the very young, very old, or immunocompromised. Everybody else, pretty much, survives. Because that way they get to pass it on to other people. Same with covid.

[stanky]

Agree.
Except in the case of engineered viruses.
It's marvelous, what can be done these days.
It's also a new type of danger; demands huge trust in good intentions.

[Admin]

It's not in a virus's best interests to kill its hosts. A virus will naturally evolve to become more contagious, but less deadly.

Unfortunately, viruses don't decide what they do, and evolutionary pressure isn't always the driver. Just as cyanobacteria didn't stop reproducing until they all died, viruses are entirely capable of never reducing in virulence. Rabies and smallpox are two very good examples. Neither ever reduced in virulence and rabies still has a 99.999% death rate.

Same with covid.

No.

Influenza mutates along predictable lines, covid doesn't. The sheer number of animal hosts means that almost anything is possible, because covid recombines with other viruses which makes it completely unpredictable. There's also the issue of damage done to both organs and immune systems by covid. We have no idea how severe those might be.

[stanky]

I'd guess we haven't heard the last from prions either. The wasting disease that effects deer, elk, moose, etc, and is now in 31 states here, as well as in Canada and Scandinavian nations, hasn't crossed to humans, though many researchers think it could.
Hard to kill something that isn't alive.

[arthwollipot]

Agree.
Except in the case of engineered viruses.

Engineered viruses? Can you show me any actual examples of that?

[sparks]

Google gene therapy.